Craic On

Grand National

I’ve been picking horses and betting on the Grand National since I was quite young.

However, in all those years I’ve never picked the winner.

The closest I’ve ever come was the year Foinavon won it at 100/1 when all the other horses either fell or were stopped from jumping at what is now called the Foinavon Fence.

My horse, Honey End, managed to solve the problem first and got through a gap in the fallers.

However, it was a full fence behind Foinavon.

It was catching Foinavon relentlessly but the finish came too soon for him.

Having almost won on the Grand National at a young age I would have expected to have actually won on it by now.

But I’m still waiting.

Selecting the Horses

I always select the horses by a process of elimination, dumping the horses without stamina, with too much weight, who don’t perform on he type of ground, e.g. soft, and those who fall too often.

I then select the ‘winner’ from those that are left.

Despite this being the obvious way to do it, it has never worked.

However, despite all the evidence, I am going to continue with the ‘system’ this year.

Narrowed Down to Two Horses

So, I have managed to narrow it down to just two horses.

They are Chase the Spud at around 28/1 and Milansbar also at 28/1.

The ground is heavy this year.

This should make the weight that the top weights have to carry even heavier.

My horses have 10:11 and 10:06 to carry – among the lighter weights.

It also means that you should look at the heavy and soft ground specialists.

Soft Ground Specialists

Chase the Spud and Milansbar both perform better in the soft ground.

The Sporting Life has looked at the form of each horse only on soft ground and they have rated Milansbar at the top, the best horse in soft ground according to its form.

As the ground is heavy, it should be favourite – but it is 28/1. That’s good value.

It is to be ridden by a woman jockey.

I will be staying well away from saying whether I think that is an advantage or disadvantage.

She would be the first woman jockey ever to win the Grand National.

It would be nice to have tipped it if she does.

Picking the Winner

However, I can’t have two horses in trace.

I’m going to have to tip one of them.

So, I’ll go for Milansbar.

If it wins all the news will be about the first woman to win the Grand National.

It will also be the first time that I have ever picked the winner of the race.

We’ll see what happens.

I’m off to the bookies now.

Update

They both lost.

Milansbar was up in the first few for all the race and finished fifth, just out of the places, at a starting price of 25/1. I got 28/1.

Chase the Spud was never mentioned after being 2nd last at the 2nd fence.

I read later that it pulled up at the 8th fence.

As least Milansbar gave me a run for my money.

Ah well!

Maybe next year.

There I an expression “the bookies smile when they see you coming”.

I have to say that the bookie did smile at me when I went to put on my bet.

Maybe he is a normally happy person.

Maybe he was just happy with the thought of a bumper day’s takings.

Surely he didn’t remember all those losing bets from previous years and broke into a broad grin when he saw me coming.