Craic On

Big Game

There’s a good-sized Scottish contingent in Moville so it was a very nice draw this morning when the Republic of Ireland and Scotland were drawn in the same group.

Indeed, myself and my son will be on opposite sides as we watch the matches between the two sides.

There are 9 groups this time with 6 teams in each group. The winners and runners-up in the group go through plus 5 of the 9 third places sides. That gives both countries a good chance of going through.

Although Scotland were in pot 4 and Ireland the 2nd top pot, Scotland are actually above them in the current Fifa rankings which ranks all countries starting with Spain at the top.

FIFA Rankings

Here are the current FIFA rankings of the countries in the group.

2 – Germany

34 – Scotland

67 – Ireland

70 – Poland

103 – Georgia

There’s also Gibraltar who don’t seem to have a ranking perhaps because they haven’t been playing long.

Betting Odds

However, the bookies don’t see it that way. They go, to win the group:-

1/8 – Germany

8/1 – Poland

10/1 – Ireland

50/1 – Scotland

500 – Georgia

2,500 – Gibraltar

Even at those odds Gibraltar are no value at all. They should be those odds not to finish last.

Value Bet

I may be biased but I reckon that Scotland are the value – although maybe not to win the group, as Germany have that sown up, but to finish runners-up to Germany.

They have done well since Gordon Strachan took over.

Doing the calculations I reckon that if you took Germany out of the betting and made it betting without Germany the odds would look something like this based on the above odds:-

Runners Up

Evens – Poland

6/4 – Ireland

10/1 – Scotland

100/1 – Georgia

500/1 – Gibraltar

I must keep an eye out for any bookies offering betting without Germany in Group D.

I’ll also have to pack my son off somewhere else when the match is on. He can watch it from his own room.