Craic On

The World Cup has been played 19 times and the host country has won it 6 times. That means the host country should be 13/6 or just above 2/1 in the betting to win it.

Brazil is the host next year. Their current odds are 7/2 – way above that.

Although the World Cup has been played 19 times it has been hosted by some countries who really didn’t stand any chance of winning it – although they usually did better than expected.

If you take out the countries who hosted it who had no chance of winning it, i.e. Switzerland, Sweden, Chile, Mexico (twice), USA, South Korea and South Africa, you are left with the World Cup being won 6 times out of 12 by countries who have a side capable of winning the World Cup.

Therefore, the odds of a home winner of the World Cup, when there is a team hosting it who has a chance of winning it then the odds should be Evens (6 out fo 12).

Better

However, Brazil are not just a side who have a chance of winning it. They are the country who have won the World Cup most times. THey have won it 5 times out of the 19. So, if the World Cup was held anywhere in the world, then, based on history, their odds should be 12/5 – shorter than the current odds of 7/2,

Countries who have won it as hosts are Uruguay, Italy, England, West Germany, Argentina and France. Top countries who have hosted the World Cup but who have not finished winners are France, Brazil, Italy (twice), Spain and Germany.

Not as Good

So are the high odds because the current Brazil team are not as good as previous Brazil teams? They may be a little below the level of the very best. However, in the recent Confederation Cup, which was held in Brazil and was a practice for the World Cup with most of the best countries there, Brazil won it beating World Cup champions, Spain, 3-0 in the final.

Bookmakers always give higher odds for World Cup tournaments than they should. They give great value for the hosts. I remember when South Africa were hosts for the rugby World Cup the bookmakers had them at 6/1 even though they and New Zealand have always been the best teams.

I was telling everyone to back them. They won, of course. That was the one in front of Nelson Mandela.

South American Advantage

No European team has ever won the World Cup in South America. The World Cup has been played 6 times in South or Central America and once in the USA and all 7 times it has been won by South American teams, either Brazil (3 times), Argentina (twice) or Uruguay (twice). Therefore, Brazil should be 4/3 for World Cups played in the Americas based on history. That’s without home advantage.

Brazil might not win the World Cup but they have a better than 22% chance of winning it that the odds suggest they have. I would say that they should be odds on.I would give them a 60% to 70% chance of winning it in front of their home fans.

That would be odds of between 4/6 and 3/7. Currently they are 7/2. That’s an absolute steal. Have a little saver bet on Argentina (6/1) and Uruguay (33/1 even with a strike force fo Suarez and Cavani) just to get your money back if Brazil don’t win it. Those three countries have won all 7 World Cups held in the Americas.